The NFL, like any other sport, has its fair share of ups and down, but never will this matter more than when you are better on the over/under. This is when you place a wager on how much under or over the predicted collective score both teams will finally end up on.
There are stats that you can trace that will give you the average over/under scores for that season. Looking at these will give you more of an informed idea of how it goes, however, there is always a degree of luck involved.
So how often do games go over and how much go under in NFL? Which teams are known for going under and which are known for going over? Well, we’ve given you all the stats for this as well as some tricks and tips to help you game the over/under.
What Is Over/Under Betting?
This type of betting is quite common and relatively straightforward. You simply place a bet on who you think the final collective score will be over the number that your oddsmakers have predicted for the game.
For example, if the predicted score of the game is 45 (which is the combined total of both teams’ final scores) and you bet under, then the score will have to be lower than 45.
If the score exactly matches that of the predicted score, then this is called a push. In the case of the push, all bets are refunded to the bettors.
But what is the tendency of over and unders in the NFL? Why is it profitable for you to know this information?
Over Or Under – Which Is The Most Common In NFL?
In NFL, the games do tend to fall under the predicted score. Here are the averages across various sports during the last 5 seasons (updated on July 2022), with NFL listed at the top. The numbers listed indicate the over, the under and push games.
- NFL – 644-700-11 – 52.1% Under Win
- NBA – 3565-3575-450 – 49.7% under win
- MLB – 5639-2045-54 – 50.1% under win
- MCAAF – 1910-2045-45 – 51.7% under win
- NCAAB – 11187-11229-283 – 50.1%
As we can see from these results, most of the sports listed favor the over, but only slightly. This means that you will still be taking a risk when you are betting on the under.
Here are some of the percentages for overs and unders from the last few seasons of NFL games. These percentages do not include push games:
2017-2018
- Under: 53.52%
- Over: 46.48%
2018-2019
- Under: 51.95%
- Over: 46.88%
2019-2020
- Under: 49.22%
- Over: 50%
2020-2021
- Under: 47.66%
- Over: 48.83%
2021-2022
- Under: 52.94%
- Over: 45.96%
By looking at these stats, we can see that under predominate. However, this does not guarantee that you will get an under on the game that you are betting on.
What Other Factors Determine The Over/Under?
There are many other elements that will determine the over/under, some of which will not become apparent until the game is close to the beginning.
The odds of games like hockey can also still be changing as the game is taking place, although this is only allowed for certain types of bets.
If there is an injury or a key player is missing from the match, then this obviously determines how the game will be predicted to turn out, which will affect the odds.
If you bet on an under, then there is a higher chance of your bet going dead, as once it goes over a certain threshold, it cannot go any lower.
However, you can be hopeful of an over occurring, even as the game extends into overtime, as there could be a flurry of goals in the dying minutes.
What Teams Are The Best At Achieving Unders?
The Steelers and The Broncos are two teams that have consistently gone under the points that they have predicated to score in any one game.
The Steelers have had more success in going under, with around 58.14% of their games achieving this end result. This means that if you have bet $10 on the Steelers going under, then you’ll win around $174.54 on your wager.
The Broncos have a lower percentage of getting the under, although the odds mean that you will win a lot more money when the under happens. 56.59% of their games went under, which means that if you bet $10, you would get $135.42 for your bet.
There are a few other teams that have scored a high percentage of unders. However, the more that this number goes up, the lower the odds will be for them getting unders:
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 58.14% (+$170.54)
- Denver Broncos – 56.59% (+$135.42)
- Chicago Bears – 55.81% (+$99.09)
- Atlanta Falcons – 55.04% (+$98.15)
- New England Patriots – 55.04% (+$83.64)
What Teams Are The Best At Achieving Overs?
NFL teams achieving over is a lot less common than teams achieving unders. Over the last 8 seasons, the Tennessee Titans are one of the only teams to score the most overs, with 55.81% of their games ending in this result.
This means that if you put $10 on the Titans winning the over, then you’ll get a $113.53 return on your wager.
Here is a list of the other teams that have gained more over than under results:
- Tennessee Titans – 55.81% (+$113.53)
- New Orleans Saints – 54.26% (+$69.65)
- Carolina Panthers – 53.49% (+$59.15)
- Las Vegas Raiders – 52.71% (+$46.70)
Frequently Asked Questions
What Other Elements Can Predict The Over/Under?
The weather forecast is an often-overlooked factor in determining the over/under. An increase in the windspeed can affect the over/under by up to 70%.
You should check the weather up to a week before the game and see if this has affected the betting line. If it lowers your odds, then there is a chance that you will get a larger payout, although the risk of loss will be greater.
Should I always Go With The Under?
In NFL, unders are far more popular, which means that the odds will be generally lower. Oddsmakers know that most people will bet the over and can exaggerate betting lines to reflect that tendency.
Do I Go With The Popular Bet?
If you really want to get that decent payout, look for trends underneath the trends. Very often if people are flowing in one direction regarding betting, the oddsmakers will notice this and hedge their bets, giving you lower odds.
Doing your own research and not relying on the handicapper or bookies will help you to identify patterns across games that nobody else has seen.
Conclusion
We hope that our guide to over/under odds in NFL (Also check out How To Read Basketball Odds) has helped you to make a decision with regards to which to opt for. NFL favors an under, but you’ll have to make as educated a guess as possible by doing the necessary research into the team that you are betting on.
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